The 2004 bird-flu crisis bears chilling similarities
to the outbreak of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) last year.
Despite months of evidence that an epidemic was brewing, a history of
similar outbreaks, and SARS, officials throughout the region seem
unprepared to deal with the bird-flu issue. That scenario drives
Andrew Grant crazy.
"Countries and companies don't think ahead," contends Grant, managing
director of organizational training group Tirian. "When a crisis
happens, you've got instant issues, you don't have time to think.
Making a decision under pressure doesn't give us the luxury of looking
at all the possible choices and where those roads lead." Without that
pressure, it's much simpler to see the real issues.
Catch me if you dare
In the wake of last year's SARS crisis, Tirian developed "Catch Me if
You Dare", a crisis-management simulation for the public and private
sectors. "In a simulation, you can see what things work and what
things don't," Grant explains. "It's a much more costly exercise to
actually go through a crisis."
Or to go through the same ones again and again. When Grant approached
companies in Hong Kong about participating in "Catch Me ..."
simulations, "They said, 'We don't want to talk about that again,
let's put that behind us.' We should be looking at what can we learn
from a crisis. These things do come back."
After reading about the simulation of a smallpox outbreak in the
United States that exposed rampant lack of preparedness, Grant
realized that a similar crisis in Asia would present far greater
complexity: "What about when you have that scenario strewn across 12
different cultures?"
For example, different value systems dictate different approaches to
danger. There's rational risk management, which is really little more
than guessing, versus belief in a higher power, which is refusing to
guess. Grant recalls a story he heard from an Australian lifeguard
about spotting a shark in water among a thousand bathers. "If he
sounded the alarm, the people would panic, and the shark would panic.
Is it a cover-up if he hopes that the shark swims on?" Grant asks,
admitting he's forgotten what the lifeguard told him he'd actually
done.
Fewer opinions, more understanding
With charges of government cover-ups of bird flu now flying, Grant
cautions: "We need less of harsh opinions and more understanding of
where people are coming from." For example, citing SARS, Grant notes,
"In China, social stability is more important than the deaths of a few
people." But understanding is a two-way street. Grant also asserts
that China has an obligation to act responsibly: "A country of a
billion needs to understand what affects them also affects us."
Poultry farmers now find themselves at the mercy of what their
governments will do. Authorities in Thailand and Indonesia were
similarly reluctant to confront the bird-flu problem. Now that the
issue is on the table, though, there are key differences in the two
countries' responses.
For example, in Thailand, with the cat now out of the bag, in go the
birds. Millions of chickens have been placed in plastic bags and
buried in an effort to halt the epidemic in its tracks. Though details
are still fuzzy, the Thai government has also promised poultry farmers
compensation for their lost flocks.
read the full article at
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Southeast_Asia/FA28Ae06.html
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Gary La Moshi from Asia Times
Online interviews Andrew Grant, MD of Tirian and designer of Catch Me
if you Dare, to look at how organisations can prepare themselves to
avoid costly mistakes. “As usual, the costs of government failure to
deal with looming crises until it is too late will be eaten by
ordinary people, who will also be force-fed a diet of doubletalk.
Indonesia is not alone in failing to learn the lessons of SARS, or to
see the warning signs, but its reaction to the bird flu outbreak is
tragic nonetheless…”. |
